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Forecasting and Multi-Market Optimization

In the energy markets, accurate forecasts and market insight are essential. With Power-Deriva’s forecasting and multi-market optimization services, you can make the right moves at the right time.

Our services include reserve market forecasting, optimization, and trading. We also provide electricity consumption and production forecasts that help optimize your operational performance. Our 24/7 services for Balancing Market Operations support your company in managing the electricity balance and anticipating costs.

All in all, our services enable your company to operate more profitably and in control in the energy markets, now and in the future.

Reserve Market Forecasting, Optimization, and Trading

Power-Deriva’s reserve market forecasts cover both energy markets (aFRR, mFRR) and capacity markets (FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR, mFRR). Our forecasts provide insights into prices as well as regulation directions, volumes, and bid quantities—at quarter-hour resolution, up to 12 hours ahead. Capacity forecasts are prepared for the following day, before market closure.

Our service enables optimal resource management, helping you choose the best market option among several alternatives. You can actively utilize the forecasts in trading and risk management. The continuously evolving modelling framework adapts to both your individual needs and market changes. As a result, you receive a comprehensive set of forecasts that enable you to select the most profitable market, thereby maximizing ROI and reducing uncertainty.

Electricity Consumption and Production Forecasts

Electricity consumption and production forecasts are the foundation for decision-making in the energy markets.

With Power-Deriva’s forecasts, you can trade electricity with confidence—managing risks and maximizing profits. Our service is designed for electricity producers and sellers operating in the Nord Pool wholesale market.

Our accurate consumption and production forecasts for Day-Ahead trading support both your financial and operational success. The solar and wind power forecasts are based on weather-driven models tailored to your specific resources. In hydropower production planning, we consider the characteristics of the plant and water systems to maximize production potential. Consumption forecasts utilize artificial intelligence and real-time data analytics to inform decision-making. An expert reviews the forecasts, which are automatically updated for intraday trading.

Balancing Power Risk Management

Balancing Power Risk Management through Day-Ahead bids and continuous trading in the Intraday market

Balancing Power Risk Management reduces costs associated with deviations and improves profitability. We manage balancing risks on two levels—in connection with Day-Ahead (DA) bids and through continuous trading in the Intraday (ID) market. DA bids can be fine-tuned based on Power-Deriva’s balancing risk forecasts, enabling you to account for imbalance risks even before the delivery day.

In ID trading, our operations are based on real-time, updated forecasts that define trading needs, which we manage flexibly according to your requirements. Forecasts of imbalance prices and price trends further support timely decision-making.

Day-Ahead bids—fewer imbalances before the market day:

A risk analysis of imbalance directions is created for the hours of the following day.
Depending on the client’s needs, the DA bid volume can be increased or decreased by a moderate amount.

Updated forecasts—real-time data for Intraday trading:

The client’s resources receive updated forecasts that define trading needs for the ID market.
The updated forecasts are produced using the client’s own data, real-time measurements, and weather variables.

Intraday trading—manage imbalances [MV1] [DL2] cost-effectively and within the same day:

ID trading allows management of imbalance risks and the ability to hedge against or benefit from the price difference between imbalance and ID prices.
Power-Deriva’s imbalance price and direction forecasts identify moments when the risk of price fluctuation is high.

Our clients

Power-Deriva’s portfolio management service has helped us manage electricity market price risks in both our sales and production. We are delighted with their approach, which is always focused on the customer’s best interest.

Johanna Övergaard

Oy Katternö Ab
We operate actively in the electricity markets, where up-to-date information, quick decision-making, and thorough analysis are essential. In this respect, Power-Deriva is an excellent service provider for us. They manage the full scope of physical electricity trading efficiently and according to our needs. Power-Deriva is also a proactive developer that recognizes market changes and works with its customers to find the best business solutions. We are delighted with the services provided—our long partnership exists for a good reason.

Tomi Turunen

Business Director | Pohjois-Karjalan Sähkö Oy
As a Power-Deriva’s customer, we benefit from excellent market analysis as part of their portfolio management service, which enables us to make successful decisions in the electricity market. In physical electricity procurement, we rely on Power-Deriva’s strong expertise across the entire energy supply chain.

Olli Laitinen

Kymenlaakson Sähkö Oy
Oulun Energia has been Power-Deriva’s customer since the company was founded. Over the years, our cooperation has deepened to cover the full spectrum of electricity market services—from physical electricity trading to derivatives market services. In addition to their broad expertise, I especially value Power-Deriva’s ability to respond quickly to our needs.

Marko Lehto

Oulun Energia Oy