Electricity Price and Fundamental Forecasts

Power-Deriva’s reserve market forecasts cover both energy markets (aFRR, mFRR) and capacity markets (FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR, mFRR). Our forecasts provide information on prices, regulation directions, volumes, and bid quantities—at quarter-hour resolution, up to 12 hours ahead. aFRR and mFRR energy market forecasts also include projections for balancing power prices and directions. Capacity forecasts are produced for the following day, well in advance of market closure.

We provide comprehensive reserve market forecasts that support our clients’ trading and optimization across various reserve types. Forecasts for aFRR and mFRR energy markets are created at quarter-hour resolution up to 12 hours ahead, including price, regulatory direction, volume, and bid data. These provide valuable insights into balancing power prices and directions.

Capacity market forecasts (FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR, mFRR) are produced for the following day, well before capacity market closure, covering both price and volume expectations. Our models are continuously refined to adapt to changing market conditions and client needs. The various reserve forecasts ensure that you are always in the right market at the right time.

Spot price forecasts for electricity market participants in Finland and the Nordics—because timing means profit.

Power-Deriva’s Day-Ahead electricity price forecast provides up-to-date information on spot prices for the following day and ahead. The forecast is based on the electricity market, including consumption and production forecasts for each bidding area, as well as power transfers between regions. The result is a reliable and detailed view of the Finnish electricity market. The forecast is continuously updated and covers both the current and upcoming weeks, enabling efficient optimization between Day-Ahead and reserve markets in real time and profitably.

Medium-term electricity price forecasts and distributions—insights that give your company a head start in the energy market.

Power-Deriva’s fundamental forecasting service offers a comprehensive outlook on electricity price development across Central Europe, the Nordic region, and the Baltic region. The model takes into account weather conditions, energy commodity prices, variations in generation types, and regional differences in production and consumption. A detailed analysis of supply and demand dynamics across price areas supports timely decision-making and preparation for market changes.

The service includes accurate price forecasts and production analyses that track the development of fuel prices, renewable energy generation, and electricity consumption. With our proprietary hydrological model, we reliably assess hydropower availability—considering inflows, snowpack levels, and groundwater reserves.

Power-Deriva’s long-term energy market report includes production, consumption, and electricity price forecasts extending up to 40 years into the future. The forecasts cover Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Baltic countries, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and the United Kingdom—enabling international and comparative analysis of future electricity markets.

The report offers in-depth insights into the growth drivers of electricity consumption, including electric boilers and hydrogen production, as well as investment costs for various generation technologies. It is ideally suited for investment planning, strategic work, and project valuation modeling. The report also includes an overview of the Guarantees of Origin market.

The report is updated quarterly and delivered as a comprehensive package, including a written report, a modelling results appendix, and a recorded webinar, all ready to support informed decision-making.

Our insights support, for example, investment decision-making, valuation, and portfolio optimization by enabling market participants to understand the revenue potential and market dynamics of renewable assets.

Power-Deriva provides tailored market analyses and scenario modelling based on the client’s specific needs. Whether supporting investment decisions or assessing the impact of different events, our customized analysis’ deliver data-driven expert insights that help understand market dynamics and make the right decisions.